Status: Published
Citation: Bistline, J; Browning, M; DeAngelo, J; Huppmann, D; Jones, R; McFarland, J; Molar-Cruz, A; Rose, S & Davis, SJ. 2025. Uses and Limits of National Decarbonization Scenarios to Inform Net-Zero Transitions. Published in JOULE 8 (10): 2721-2726.
This paper investigates how sets of emissions scenarios, “ensembles,” can be used to inform policy design and decision-making. Decarbonization scenario analysis has limitations, especially in their application to sub-national conditions and challenges when scenario analysis was conducted nationally. While broad conclusions about wind and solar deployment, electrification, and technology choice may be informative and applicable across multiple scenarios, pathways, and real-world conditions, uncertainty and variation in specifics across models and regions offer an important caveat to over-application of model findings, even when analyzed in an ensemble.
Link to Journal Publication: Uses and limits of national decarbonization scenarios to inform net-zero transitions - ScienceDirect