Regional Load Growth and Power Sector Decarbonization: Analysis and Insights from EPRI's US-REGEN Model

Electricity demand in the United States is poised for a period of growth, which is driven by data centers, electrification, manufacturing, and electrolytic hydrogen production. This analysis uses EPRI’s U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy Model (US-REGEN) to assess how electricity demand could evolve across a range of policy and technology scenarios and how resulting demand changes may alter power sector investments, emissions, and costs at national and regional scales. Model results indicate that near-term demand growth is driven primarily by data centers, while transport electrification dominates longer-run growth through 2050 across many scenarios. Capacity additions of solar, wind, and energy storage are projected to exceed recent historical levels under all scenarios, with higher demand roughly doubling build rates. The emissions intensity of new demand declines over time and is generally lower than the 2024 average U.S. grid intensity. Higher electricity demand increases power sector CO2 emissions, but economy-wide emissions changes are more limited because higher demand is often linked with end-use electrification that displaces fossil fuel use. Electricity prices are driven more by policy assumptions than by demand growth across the scenarios examined in this analysis. Regional variation in load growth, load shapes, and resource quality creates substantial differences in outcomes.

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