Data centers have become the fastest-growing source of U.S. electricity demand, and regional clusters of facilities are transforming local grid dynamics, fueled by increased consumer demand for streaming and other data-intensive services, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence (AI). Drawing upon state-level data on operational capacity, construction in progress, and announced plans, EPRI developed Low, Medium, and High scenarios for U.S. data center capacity growth through 2030. Data centers are projected to consume 9% to 17% of U.S. electricity by 2030, up from 4% to 5% today. The projected range of 2030 data center electricity demand is 60% higher than prior EPRI scenarios, which reflects the accelerated pace of data center development. Capacity continues to accumulate in primary data center markets, but the emergence of new capacity in other states suggests increased prioritization of power access and land availability, particularly for large AI training centers. Under reference policies, natural gas dominates incremental supply, while carbon-free energy commitments shift investment portfolios toward low-emitting generation and energy storage. Collaboration is essential to maintain and enhance grid reliability and to address affordability and community impacts as data centers connect to the grid.
Authors Thomas F. Wilson, Geoffrey J. Blanford, John Bistline, and Nils Johnson