Status: Published
**Citation:**Gao, Ruying; Mai, Trieu; Shahabeddin Mousavi, Seyed; Rossmann, Charles; Binsted, Matthew; Bistline, John; Blanford, Geoff; Browning, Morgan; Fripp, Matthias; Lamers, Patrick; Muratori, Matteo; Showalter, Sharon; Weyant, John. 2025. Evolving electricity supply and demand to achieve net-zero emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 study. Published in Energy and Climate Change 6 (2025): 100196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196.
This paper synthesizes results from 17 energy system models participating in the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37) to examine how the U.S. electricity system may evolve to achieve economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The study explores results from each model of a Reference scenario (using climate policies in place as of early 2022) and a Net-Zero scenario with a linear emissions-reduction path to reach net-zero by mid-century. While the models differ substantially in structure, assumptions, and technology representations, common patterns emerge: electricity plays a large role in decarbonization, electricity demand grows due to widespread electrification, and renewable energy expands dramatically, primarily from wind and solar resources.
A key finding in the Net-Zero scenarios is the more rapid decline in electricity-sector CO2 emissions relative to reductions in total energy-related emissions. This reflects the availability and maturity of low-carbon electricity technologies, leading to a consensus in these model results that power-sector decarbonization is the earliest and most cost-effective strategy for decarbonizing the U.S. energy system. While all models reach net-zero, the details vary widely, such as some models projecting high electrification of end uses and other models projecting fuel use with carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via BECCS or direct air capture. Decision-makers can use this multi-model synthesis to identify robust insights, such as growth in electrification and wind/solar resources, and to recognize areas where outcomes diverge and hedging strategies may be needed.
Link to Journal Publication: Evolving electricity supply and demand to achieve net-zero emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 study - ScienceDirect