Status: Published
**Citation:**Iyer, G; Zhao, A; Bryant, A; Bistline, J; Blanford, G; Cui, R; Fawcett, AA; Goldstein, R; Levin, A; Mahajan, M; McJeon, H; Orvis, R; & Hultman, N. 2025. A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC. Published in NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 16 (643).
This study compares scenarios of US emissions reduction strategies to meet its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement. By analyzing multiple scenarios from various models and modeling teams, the paper identifies factors the contribute uncertainty and identifies areas of consensus in model structure, assumptions, scenario design, and characteristics that shape emissions, cost, and system design outcomes. It finds that technologies incentives and subsidies, fuel costs, and regulatory strategies can alter pathways, but that some strategies are robust across scenarios, including the rapid deployment of renewable energy and new capacity and electrification, though rates vary across the studied models and scenarios.
Link to Journal Publication: A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC | Nature Communications