This study explores the energy system impacts of large-scale synthetic methane (e-gas) exports from the United States to Asia, using the US-REGEN energy-economy model. The analysis evaluates how varying levels of export demand—centered on Japan and Southeast Asia—could interact with U.S. decarbonization pathways, infrastructure constraints, and technology deployment. Scenarios span a range of demand levels and policy environments, including a Reference case and a Net-Zero-by-2050 target.
Results show that e-gas production is concentrated in regions with strong wind resources (e.g., SPP and MISO-North). Inter-regional pipeline congestion and renewable resource limits can shift production to other regions like Texas in the highest export-demand scenarios. High-export scenarios significantly increase electrolytic hydrogen production needs and drive expansion in wind, solar, and gas-fired generation, with nuclear also playing a key role in the highest-demand scenarios. In the absence of stringent national emissions targets, e-gas exports can lead to a modest increase in domestic CO2 emissions. Net-Zero targets can exert greater influence on e-gas prices than demand growth.
Authors Aranya Venkatesh, et al.