National net-zero strategies often obscure the regional diversity of decarbonization opportunities, costs, and risks. This paper uses a detailed energy systems model to evaluate economy-wide pathways for achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 across sixteen U.S. regions under alternative technology and policy assumptions. Results show that cost-effective regional emission reductions diverge substantially from the national average, reflecting differences in renewable resource quality, CO2 storage potential, existing infrastructure, and energy demand. In scenarios with full technology availability, regions with abundant wind or solar resources achieve deeper reductions and export low-carbon electricity, while others rely more on carbon capture, nuclear, or fuel switching. When carbon storage or bioenergy is limited, regional disparities widen, increasing overall system costs and electrification needs. Current emissions levels are poor predictors of regional transition opportunities or risks, as future technological, market, and policy conditions dominate. These findings highlight the value of regionally flexible policies and region-specific modeling to develop cost-effective and reliable decarbonization pathways.
Status: Submitted to Nature Sustainability