READi Insights: An Approach to Defining Temperature Extreme Events: A Threshold-based Probabilistic Approach to Defining Extreme Temperature Events

Extreme weather events can be defined in a multitude of ways, and the choice of approach should reflect the specific purpose and context of the categorization. This paper addresses two key points for stakeholders actively planning for climate resilience to consider. First, we outline the defining characteristics of extreme events, including intensity, duration, frequency, spatial extent, seasonality, compound nature, and impact. Some combination of these factors is essential to define and identify extreme weather events, and each plays a role in the ultimate outcome and impact of extreme weather conditions. Second, we compare two methods for identifying benchmark extreme events: rank order statistics and calibrated probabilistic approaches. While rank order methods offer a simple and accessible starting point, they often lack the rigor needed for fair comparisons across regions. In contrast, probabilistic methods allow for more consistent and equitable benchmarking by ensuring that events are compared based on their likelihoods, regardless of regional variability, providing a more meaningful representation of risk.

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