Data center (DC) activity and electricity use have increased rapidly in recent years and are expected to grow significantly in the years ahead, especially with emerging applications of artificial intelligence (AI) for commercial and consumer use as well as growing demand from small-scale data centers, large-scale commercial data centers, and cryptocurrency mining. The need for power has become a critical consideration for DC and AI growth with multi-year connection lead times, demand for reliable electricity, and company emissions targets all creating the potential for regional electricity supply challenges. However, projections of electricity consumption from these fast-moving technologies remain uncertain. Responses to anticipated load growth include both new investments by electric companies and direct power acquisition by DC developers. Both can reflect corporate procurement preferences for clean energy, as seen for example with recently announced dedicated nuclear and geothermal projects. An earlier EPRI white paper discusses key considerations for DC impacts on the power sector and highlights key steps to support rapid DC expansion.
This paper builds on that effort, providing updated projections for future regional load growth from data centers; estimates of load growth from other sources including domestic manufacturing, end-use electrification, and electrolytic hydrogen; and analyses of how these loads could alter electric sector investment decisions and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under a range of future policy (including current policy and economy-wide net-zero by 2050 cases) and corporate strategy scenarios.
Authors John Bistline and Geoffrey J. Blanford