Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) look decades into the future, recommending generation portfolios that must meet customer demands over a wide range of possible and uncertain futures. Drivers of this uncertainty include carbon prices, natural gas prices, load, technology capital costs, and renewable generation. Stochastic analysis plays a key role in helping planners evaluate the risks posed by these uncertainties for each of their candidate portfolios. This report provides a review of stochastic planning practices employed by electric companies for their IRPs and other long-term resource plans. For this report, the IRPs and long-term plans from 21 companies were reviewed to identify trends in stochastic modeling practices. Five companies that extensively employ stochastic planning were also selected for a deep dive of their methods. The findings from both reviews informed guidance provided in this report for companies looking to adopt stochastic planning in their own IRPs. Additionally, an Excel workbook outlining illustrative examples for developing stochastic parameters from data is provided in an attachment to this report.
Authors Rachel Moglen, Nidhi R. Santen, Steve Dahlke, and Naga Srujana Goteti