The decarbonization of residential and commercial buildings is a key element of achieving economy-wide net-zero targets. Regional and structural variations across building segments and seasonal patterns imply there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to building decarbonization. In this study, we evaluated the role of building-specific decarbonization measures under economy-wide net-zero scenarios, including electrification and the use of low-carbon fuels. We enhanced the buildings sector formulation in EPRI's US-REGEN model to include:
- An expanded representation of building typology
- Income classes that can affect behavioral decisions around equipment replacement and the extent of IRA provisions
- A range of buildings-specific policies and mandates that highlight tradeoffs between alternate decarbonization strategies
- Updated input datasets
- Tools to evaluate regional results in depth
The study consists of eight scenarios that explore:
- Two net-zero trajectories by 2050: Net-Zero All Options and Net-Zero Limited Options, which were first analyzed in the LCRI Net-Zero 2050 report (2022)
- Two electrification mandates (starting in 2030): All-electric new buildings and all-electric new appliances
- Two sector-specific caps on CO2 emissions
The study provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of building decarbonization strategies on energy demands (electricity, gas, low-carbon fuels), seasonal peak demand requirements (that drive infrastructure capacity investments and utilization), household energy consumption and direct energy expenditures, and CO2 emissions. We find that electrification mandates in the buildings sector can reduce sectoral CO2 emissions considerably from 2005 levels; policies that only target new buildings may be missing a relatively large share of electrification potential. However, electrification of space heating significantly increases peak electricity demand, shifting from a summer peak to a winter peak in most regions. While annual electricity demand remains at similar levels across electrification scenarios, the installed capacity of gas turbines increases with electric mandates for all new appliances. We also find that similar levels of decarbonization in the buildings sector can be attained with an alternative technology stock that has significant remaining pipeline gas (blended with low-carbon fuels); these scenarios see much lower peak electricity demand compared to the electrification mandate scenarios.