Electric sector resource planners are interested in understanding future electric demand, and how future loads may vary with factors such as energy efficiency measures, electric vehicle adoption, technology adoption such as air source heat pumps, and load growth across end-use sectors. Understanding future demand helps electric companies plan cost-effective and high-reliability systems. This report, and the accompanying datasets, highlight the primary drivers of load change across a range of future scenarios.
The scenarios explore the factors of electric vehicle adoption, air source heat pump adoption, and growth in industrial load. Scenarios include a low, mid, and high growth case for each factor. Hourly results are provided at the U.S. state level and at the Canadian province level for 2025-2050.
Electrical loads of the contiguous U.S. are modeled using EPRI’s Geospatial End-Use Model (GEM), a discrete choice logit model that flexibly models potential future end-use electricity demand. Electrical loads of Canada are modeled using the end-use model from EPRI’s REGEN-North America model, developed as part of EPRI’s 2021 Canadian National Electrification Assessment: Electrification Opportunities for Canada’s Energy Future.
Results of this analysis include hourly load projections over time. Regional differences and changes in diurnal and seasonal loads are explored. This research also examines how the factors studied affect peak loads, and how peak loads vary across time and by regions.