Mapping Heating and Cooling Loads to Assess the Potential of Thermal Energy Networks

Thermal energy networks offer a neighborhood-scale decarbonization strategy, using shared infrastructure to efficiently transfer thermal energy among interconnected buildings and shifting the focus from individual building-level solutions. While pilot projects have demonstrated localized benefits, the broader impacts of scaling thermal energy networks in the U.S. have not been explored. Assessing the full potential of these systems requires a systematic approach to identifying feasible deployment sites, assessing their technical and economic potential, and their integration into long-term energy system models. This report addresses the first step by (1) establishing key criteria for assessing the feasibility of thermal energy networks and (2) developing a geospatial methodology to map thermal energy sinks. The analysis presents a case study in Framingham, Massachusetts using scalable tools and publicly available geodata to characterize building stocks, calculate heating and cooling loads, and identify high-density load centers. Building-level heating and cooling load profiles are calculated using a gray-box model, aggregated into a thermal energy demand density map, and used to identify and characterize thermal sinks within the study area. The identified thermal sink aligns with sites selected for a potential thermal energy network pilot project, validating the methodology. Finally, the report provides guidelines to expand the analysis and advance the assessment of the system-wide value of large-scale deployment of thermal energy networks.