Traditional approaches to power system planning often rely on historical weather data to model electricity generation and demand, but this approach will leave systems vulnerable to climate change as local weather patterns have changed and will continue to change in the future. Rising temperatures will, on average, increase load while simultaneously derating power lines. Changes to other weather variables may impact power systems as well. Low winds contribute to line derating and reduce wind power, while drought challenges thermal generator cooling and hydropower resources. To build climate-resilient systems, it is crucial to integrate forward-looking climate data into models for system planning. This remains a substantial challenge because current Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally output daily data, while system planners need hourly data to capture rapid weather fluctuations that impact generation and load. These diurnal fluctuations are important to capture since operational decisions are commonly made on an hourly or even sub-hourly basis. This Quick Insight outlines different techniques for generating future hourly time series data and discusses challenges in projecting future weather extremes.
Authors Erik Smith, et al.