Linking Capacity Expansion, Resource Adequacy, and Production Cost Modeling Tools for Integrated Strategic System Planning

EPRI's Integrated Strategic System Planning (ISSP) Initiative developed a new framework and analytical toolbox for more comprehensively planning across generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use systems, and realizing cost-effective and reliable low-carbon electric power systems. The overall framework consists of a series of soft-linked power system modeling tools, including (1) an economic energy-systems planning model to develop regional technology pathways; (2) a detailed, nodal generation and transmission capacity expansion planning model to develop system-level resource expansion portfolios; (3) a series of grid operations simulation models to evaluate resource adequacy and system risk; and (4) distribution planning tools to assess potential distribution network upgrades and non-wires alternatives.

The research presented in this report focuses on the modeling linking efforts between tools identified in (1), (2), and a portion of (3) above. The motivation for this work is that cost-effective, low-carbon electricity transition planning requires analytical tools and processes that consider key policy, technology, and market impacts across broad, interconnected power systems; as well as critical grid operations and reliability needs given higher levels of variable renewable energy, distributed energy resources, and storage assets. And simply, existing long-term planning modeling tools do not adequately meet both requirements.

Focusing on the bulk power system, this research leverages and links a zonal economic energy-systems planning model, a nodal unit-level capacity expansion planning model, and resource adequacy and production cost models for planning low-carbon and high-renewable long-term resource portfolios that are robust to potential future reliability and resource adequacy deficiencies.