Status: Published
Citation: Browning, M; Bistline J; Boyd, G; Muratori, M; Binsted, M; Harris, C; Mai, T; Blanford G; Edmonds, J; Fawcett, AA; Kaplan, O; Weyant, J. 2023. Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Published in ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 4: 100104. doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104
This peer-reviewed journal article was published in Energy and Climate Change and is part of a joint model comparison project under the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 to understand the role of electrification in economy-wide decarbonization pathways for the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Sixteen modeling teams participated in the scoping, design, execution, and reporting of this analysis, and the results show the outcomes of economy-wide net zero carbon pathways, including emissions, energy use, and technology adoption, among others. Included in the study is EPRI’s US-REGEN model. The study investigates the role of various decarbonization options across three scenarios, two net zero and one reference, and the participating models revealed differences between models in the relative importance of the decarbonization options. The study agrees broadly with other similar studies that the key components of decarbonization include electrification of end-uses, rapid deployment of solar and wind, use of low or no-carbon fuels, end-use efficiency improvements, and negative emissions strategies, though comparing the specific levels of deployment reveals that further investigation into the determining factors of differences is necessary. EMF 37 will release companion papers that explore the causes and implications of these differences.
Link to Journal Publication: Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study - ScienceDirect