Extreme winter weather can pose numerous challenges to power system operations and load forecasting. As the power system transitions towards a low-carbon future, these challenges may evolve. Despite overall global trends of warming, extreme winter weather—which may be characterized by extreme cold, heavy snow, and/or significant ice—is expected to continue to impact power system operations and planning. Increasing electrification rates and the changing resource mix will likely shift the drivers of risk when it comes to extreme winter weather. For example, electricity loads in the winter in some regions are likely to increase as home heating and transportation demands switch from fossil fuels to electricity, potentially adding stress to the power system during extreme winter weather. Systems that were historically summer peaking may transition to winter peaking under high electrification futures, increasing the importance of understanding the full range of winter weather-related operating conditions. These trends provide strong motivation for better understanding and preparedness for current and future winter weather conditions. Additional emphasis may be placed on weather forecasts to anticipate demand and prepare for physical impacts to infrastructure, but adequate preparation depends on the quality of both weather and load forecasts.
Authors Erik Smith