The world has changed since the U.S. announced in April 2021 the goal to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to achieve net-zero economy-wide emissions by 2050. Rapid and ongoing changes to energy technologies, markets, and policy are affecting pathways to a low-carbon future, particularly the pathways to the near-term, interim 2030 target. This analysis updates earlier EPRI research of 50x30 pathways to account for new challenges and near-term uncertainties that have arisen since 2021, including increased costs for energy technologies and fuels as well as updated incentives such as those in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). Relative to 2021, a rebound in emissions, increased inflation, and more constrained supply chains increase the challenge of halving emissions by 2030, but IRA could offset some of these impacts and accelerate the deployment of clean electricity, electric vehicles, and other low-carbon technologies. The rate of emissions reductions must increase beyond historical trends by several times to meet 2030 targets and continue at a similar pace to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Core decarbonization pathways remain similar to earlier analysis—clean electricity, energy efficiency, and electrification.
Authors John Bistline