Pandemic-Resilient and Sustainable Transmission and Distribution Systems: Long-Term Impacts on Demand, Decarbonization, and Renewables

Recent increases in construction and materials costs, fossil fuel prices, and shipping challenges create uncertainty about future technology costs and deployment constraints. This analysis uses EPRI’s U.S. Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN) model to evaluate how these trends may shape future decarbonization pathways, especially power sector costs, investments, and emissions. The results suggest that emissions policy design and timing alter the power sector generation mix and costs, which are influenced by technological costs. Inflationary pressures not only increase the costs to build and operate power systems but also can shift the near-term supply mix, especially if decarbonization timelines are accelerated. Electrification increases across all scenarios, and near-term supply shocks both increase the prices of competing fuels while also increasing upfront costs of end-use technologies.

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