Eskom plans to shut down approximately 20 GW of coal-fired power generation plants by the year 2035 and roughly 17 GW by 2050. It is necessary to better understand potential technology options to leverage existing asset infrastructure that could be selected to provide the energy, capacity, and grid reliability contributions that are currently provided by the coal fleet to ensure safe, reliable, affordable, and clean operation of the electric system while providing coal-dependent communities and workers with economic opportunities in the energy sector. This report identifies a potential technology roadmap for Eskom’s stakeholders to inform the company’s coal transition and long-term energy strategy by evaluating the current and anticipated future states of a wide range of technologies with respect to critical dimensions, such as readiness, domestic resource availability, cost and performance, and electric system impacts. In parallel to the technology roadmap, this report presents key insights and guidelines for coal plant repowering and decommissioning.
International experience highlights that energy transitions require structural changes across various sectors. Therefore, proactive and multifaceted planning (for example, opportunities for new technologies to use existing energy assets and retain employment) is required throughout a transition. Although near-term technology options—including for repowering existing coal plants—can be driven by commercial availability, there are several promising candidates that may be more carefully considered in the 2030s and beyond to provide a reliable and operationally flexible system. Depending on system composition, coal-fired electric generating capacity planned to be kept online long-term may need to be operated more flexibly. Unit-specific follow-on studies can help identify the viability of flexibly operating coal plants and various repowering options, whereas scenario-based modeling studies could elucidate resource mixes and associated system requirements. Some amount of system and equipment decommissioning, and system expansions or upgrades will likely be necessary to support coal plant repowering.