The climate is changing, and society needs to assess and plan for potential changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather, as well as related conditions, such as stream flows and sea-levels. Natural condition variability and extremes are nothing new for planners and decision-makers; however, with a changing climate there is the potential for changes to the intensity, frequency, duration, variability, and the geographic extent of physical conditions in the areas affected.
It is prudent to assess the potential physical changes and the resulting implications, risks, and risk management options. However, this is a complex and challenging task, requiring knowledge and utilization of different scientific disciplines, technical resources, and tools, as well as development of new capabilities and advances in science to inform company- and system-level applications. For many, this is a new topic. There is also an overall lack of familiarity with, and common understanding of, the science, how to use it, and what is associated with appropriate physical climate risk assessment and management for individual companies and systems.
EPRI has begun developing technical resources and guidance for company- and system-level assessments and for educating based on evaluating the science associated with understanding the relationship between physical climate change and a company, system, or community. This document is a summary of insights from our initial analysis. The publication shares our set of initial findings for discussion and to facilitate dialogue, highlighting important concepts and messages that are emerging from the study.
Physical climate risk assessment requires more than knowing whether the climate is changing, or could be changing, or whether an asset or system is exposed to those changes. We define a set of five assessments that are required for meaningful company- and system-level physical climate risk assessment, as well as tiers of analyses for identifying different scales of potential risks and responses and risk management options. Throughout the study, we characterize and assess the relevant science and identify (1) key company-level insights, (2) technical principles for physical climate risk assessment, and (3) technical issues to consider in assessing and communicating company- and system-level physical climate risk and management of that risk.
The study’s focus is assessing and translating the science for electric power physical climate risk assessment applications; however, many of the insights and guidance are applicable to other sectors and types of companies and systems, as well as local communities.
Authors David Young