For each of the past nine years, EPRI’s research program on Integrated Energy System Planning, Fuels, and Power Markets (Project Set 178-B), in conjunction with member electric companies, has developed different scenarios of potential future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the coming decades, and analyzed how the United States electric sector might evolve under these scenarios. This annotated presentation, and the accompanying Excel spreadsheet dataset, highlights the analysis and results from our 2021 REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project. In 2021, we analyzed how the U.S. electric power generation mix may evolve under a variety of zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets. We analyzed five scenarios focusing on policy variants
(a Reference with no CO2 emissions reduction goal, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) with only renewable generation allowed, and three scenarios that progressively allowed more types of generation). The two clean energy standards (CES) allowed nuclear and advanced nuclear generation, while the Net Zero policy allowed all forms of generation, using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to offset carbon emissions from fossil generation. In addition, we modeled six sensitivities of the Net Zero policy, with different end-use sector policies and cost assumptions in the electric sector. The results focus on a deep dive into power system investment decisions in 2040.