Foresight assumptions are central to long-term electric sector planning and energy systems models. These model features can alter investments and shape policy analysis. With a particular focus on intertemporal perfect foresight and sequential myopic approaches, this investigation analytically and numerically assesses the conceptual and computational implications of model foresight assumptions. Results of the investigation include a mathematical outlining of the mechanism of divergence between model outputs with different foresight assumptions, development of a validated sequential myopic mode for EPRI's REGEN model, and associated numeric insights. The investigation concludes with recommendations for REGEN and long-term energy models more broadly, including a preliminary exploration of systematic combination of foresight approaches.
Authors John Bistline