The Canadian National Electrification Assessment builds upon research at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) on the economic and technical potential for electrification—the adoption of advanced electric end-use technologies in place of fossil-fueled alternatives. Given Canadian emissions reductions initiatives at the federal, provincial, territorial, and municipal levels, the analysis investigates electrification opportunities across the buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors over the next three decades, along with implications for the environment and the electric grid.
EPRI’s Efficient Electrification Initiative explores electrification in the context of the broader energy system, analyzing the customer value, societal benefits, and technical aspects of using electric end-use technologies with low-emitting generation to decarbonize other sectors. Coupling EPRI’s modeling capabilities with its extensive research on end-use technologies, the analysis finds that deep decarbonization pathways entail significant electrification, increases in energy efficiency, decarbonization of electricity, and carbon capture and removal, especially when reaching net-zero emissions targets.
The pace and extent of electricity demand growth across scenarios—ranging from 29% to 51% above current levels by 2050—depend on policy and technology uncertainties. These changes to load present opportunities and challenges for electric sector planning and operations, including increases in peak demand, more flexible loads, higher winter peaks in many regions, and changes to daily and seasonal load shapes, which have important effects on reliability and resilience. Energy efficiency, structural change, and fuel switching contribute to economy-wide CO2 emissions falling between 47% and 80% by 2050 and to keeping energy service costs flat (or even declining) as economic activity grows. Electrification opportunities saturate or become expensive after CO2 emissions decline by approximately 80%, so additional options such as carbon removal, low-carbon fuel pathways, and demand-side approaches become increasingly valuable in reaching net-zero emissions goals.
Given the uncertain course to 2050, the Canadian National Electrification Assessment provides value to stakeholders by informing decarbonization efforts and implementation. This includes identifying pathways, consumer impacts, infrastructure needs, and implications for power sector planning.
Authors Chris DeLyser Roney