2021 Beyond 80% Analysis: Technological Options and Uncertainties for Net-Zero Electric Sector CO2 Emissions

Many utilities and policies at national and subnational levels are targeting net-zero CO2 emissions in the power sector. However, questions remain about how these targets and their timing influence electric sector technology strategy, costs, and decarbonization of other sectors. This analysis uses EPRI’s U.S. Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN) model to evaluate how assumptions about policy, markets, and technologies alter net-zero pathways. The results suggest that net-zero target definitions (i.e., which electric sector technologies are eligible under the CO2 policy) and timing matter more for investments, policy costs, and emissions than technological cost and performance assumptions. Carbon removal availability and the decarbonization timeframe are key decision points influencing resource deployment and system costs, but effects vary by region. Renewables are projected to play major roles in all scenarios, and emerging technologies such as advanced nuclear, hydrogen, carbon-capture-equipped capacity, and long-duration energy storage appear in many scenarios and regions, especially as decarbonization moves past 80%. Additionally, this analysis illustrates how carbon removal technologies can lower costs of deeply decarbonized power systems and increase the feasibility of accelerated net-zero power systems by reducing the required rate of capacity deployment.

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