Over the past several years, EPRI has undertaken an ‘Efficient Electrification’ research initiative to help the electric power sector and related stakeholders identify cost-effective and resilient strategies to produce and use clean energy. In 2018, the potential for electrification in the entire US was assessed as part of the U.S. National Electrification Assessment (US NEA) (EPRI report 3002013582), which highlighted the role that increased adoption of electric end-use technologies across the building (residential and commercial), industrial, and transport sectors could play in creating new value for consumers, businesses, and communities throughout the country. Subsequently, EPRI partnered with a number of US and international utilities to conduct tailored, state-level electrification assessments using the evolving set of analytical tools that were first pioneered in the US NEA.
The Task 1 portions of these state projects focused on long-term modeling and scenario analysis of end-use electrification and electricity supply under a variety of assumptions for the future. Later, in the Task 2 portions the research team devised a set of scenarios common to all utilities involved, and then employed EPRI’s US-REGEN and Ramboll’s CAMx for quantification of criteria air pollutant and air quality outcomes under a range of technology, policy, and economic assumptions for the future. These scenarios borrowed from the learnings of the previously executed Task 1 work for each state, but then diverged from those earlier scenarios in unique ways.
This report describes the jointly coordinated Task 2 effort for the state of Missouri, evaluating the impacts of end-use electrification and electric sector decarbonization on air pollutant emissions and air quality. The report is organized into three chapters. The first introduces the study, describes the methodologies employed, and sets out the scenario design. The second chapter dives deep into the US-REGEN results for the state; and the third summarizes highly resolved air quality outputs from CAMx.