Over the past several years, EPRI has undertaken an Efficient Electrification research initiative to help the electric power sector and related stakeholders identify cost-effective and resilient strategies to produce and use clean energy. Entergy Corporation has joined with EPRI to conduct modeling and scenario analysis exploring the potential for adoption of advanced electric technologies in three end-use sectors – buildings, transportation, and industry. The goal was to estimate the corresponding impact on electricity generation and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Louisiana and Texas during the period from 2015–2050. Analyses were carried out using EPRI’s United States Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas and Energy (US-REGEN) model; eight future scenarios were considered. The modeling of end-use sectors was conducted at the state level, while the electric sector modeling was conducted at the state level for Louisiana and at the Entergy service territory level for Texas. Following are key insights from Task 1:
- Insight 1: Efficient electrification could potentially raise the share of electricity in final energy consumption quite significantly.
- Insight 2: Loads from electric vehicles, industrial uses, and appliances/lighting represent the largest potential contributors to load growth in Louisiana and Texas going forward.
- Insight 3: Loads for space heating/cooling in residential and commercial buildings remain stable over time despite considerable penetration of electric end-use technologies, due primarily to substitution of electric resistance heating with more efficient air-source heat pumps (ASHPs).
- Insight 4: Substantial electrification would impact electric sector resource planning in Entergy’s portions of Louisiana and Texas, namely by increasing peak loads in winter (relatively more than in summer).
- Insight 5: Future electric generation and capacity mixes in Louisiana and Texas are sensitive to future fuel prices, climate policy, transmission capacity additions (new interregional bulk power lines), and total level of end-use electrification.
- Insight 6: Electrification can facilitate reductions in CO2 emissions economy-wide, particularly when combined with decarbonization of the electric sector.