Status: Published
Citation: Huntington, H. G., A. Bhargava, D. Daniels, J. P. Weyant, C. Avraam, J. Bistline, J. A. Edmonds, S. Giarola, A. Hawkes, M. Hansen, P. Johnson, A. Molar-Cruz, M. Nadew, S. Siddiqui, K. Vaillancourt, and N. Victor. 2020. “Key Findings from the Core North American Scenarios in the EMF34 Intermodel Comparison.” Energy Policy.
This paper evaluates the relationship between carbon-pricing policies and future energy scenarios across North America. Due to the interdependent nature of the US, Canadian, and Mexican economies, it is important to account for how policies in one country will affect energy supply and demand in another, and further how policy collaboration will impact the energy sector in each country. Utilizing 13 core scenarios and 17 energy-economic models, this research investigates a range of future energy scenarios, including a reference scenario that dives into crude oil and natural gas production, and a carbon tax scenario that starts at US $35/t-CO2 in 2022 and increases 5% per year. In all scenarios, each country exhibits a trend towards greater electrification and renewables deployment. When all three countries implement a carbon policy, renewables displace natural gas and coal generation in the power sector. A spillover effect of this paper, which was part of the Energy Modeling Forum 34 study on “North American Energy Trade and Integration,” was that lines of communication between analysts that inform policy in all three nations were opened, allowing for information and insights to more readily flow across borders.
Link to Journal Publication: See Energy Policy.