Great River Energy and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have undertaken a collaborative research initiative to help the electric power sector and related stakeholders identify cost-effective and resilient strategies to produce and use clean energy in Minnesota. This research evaluates potential decarbonization pathways for the state’s electric sector and energy system, and the potential for efficient electrification, i.e., electrification that is cost-effective for the state’s citizens and beneficial for the environment. In this study, we evaluate potential future Minnesota electricity capacity, generation, and end-use demand for three potential types of Minnesota state policies—increasing renewables, zero electric sector CO2 emissions by 2040, and an 80% CO2 reduction economy-wide by 2050. We also evaluate the implications of alternative assumptions regarding the use of inter-state power imports for policy compliance, expected natural gas prices, future vehicle battery costs, the use of gas turbines for capacity reserves, and the counting of CO2 emissions from gas turbines. We find that Minnesota’s future electricity system will depend on Minnesota’s climate policy type and design features, both of which are uncertainties for utility planning and imply significant investment, operations, emissions, power price, and cost transition uncertainties. Reducing CO2 emissions by 80% by 2050 across Minnesota’s economy is consistent with international global climate ambitions; however, it will be challenging with major energy system transformation. Decarbonizing Minnesota’s electricity alone by 2040 could help reduce state emissions, but also could result in increased emissions outside the electric sector, with emissions economy-wide falling well short of an 80% reduction by 2050. The electric sector could substantially support CO2 reductions in other parts of the Minnesota economy with the appropriate policy, but deployment will depend on incentives outside the electric sector for using low-carbon electricity. Finally, regardless of climate policy, Minnesota’s energy system will need plan for market and technology uncertainties. In addition to this study, the initiative also produced a second technical assessment – Minnesota Efficient Electrification Study: Task 2 – Utility-Level Assessment and Implementation Plan (3002023161).
Authors Steven Rose and John Taber