Trade-Offs in CO2 Reductions between Electric and Non-Electric Sectors

Many existing and proposed climate policies are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the electric sector. While there are low-cost emissions reductions available in the electric sector through switch to low- or no-carbon generation sources, electric-only policy approaches neglect emissions reduction opportunities in non-electric sectors, such as fossil fuel use in the transportation, buildings, and industry sectors. In particular, emissions reductions through electrification can be not only neglected but actively discouraged. This report uses a scenario analysis to demonstrate this effect and quantify the impacts of electric-sector-focused carbon regulation vs. an economy-wide approach. We find that electrification can play a major role in reducing transportation emissions, even without a carbon price, but that additional electrification beyond the baseline in other sectors is limited by electric-only policies, which increase the relative cost of electricity for end-users.

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