**Status:**Published
**Citation:**Mai, T; Bistline, J; Sun, Y; Cole, W; Marcy, C; Namovicz, C; Young, D. 2018. “The Role of Input Assumptions and Model Structures in Projections of Variable Renewable Energy: A Multi-Model Perspective of the U.S. Electricity System.” Published in Energy Economics 76:313–324.
This paper explores whether input assumptions or model structures play larger roles in projections of future wind and solar deployment by using three electric sector capacity planning and dispatch models (US-REGEN, NEMS, and ReEDS) in a coordinated scenario analysis. Results suggest that harmonizing cost and market inputs can better align wind and solar projections, but large differences persist and suggest that model structures significantly influence projections. Drivers that contribute to differences across models include representations of complementary technologies like energy storage, retirements of existing capacity, representations of ancillary costs and values of variable renewables, and features of linked models like distributed generation adoption models. An implication is that model intercomparison projects should be important inputs for decision-makers, since sensitivity analysis in a single model may underestimate uncertainty. The paper also highlights best practices and research needs for economic models to better assess the future roles of wind and solar in the power sector.
Link to Journal article: Energy Economics.