Status: Published
Citation: Creason, JR; Bistline, JE; Hodson, EL; Murray, BC; Rossmann, CG. 2018. “Effects of Technology Assumptions on US Power Sector Capacity, Generation and Emissions Projections: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Project.” Published in Energy Economics 73:290–306.
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 32 study compares a range of coordinated scenarios across 16 energy-economics models to understand implications of U.S. climate policy and technological change on power sector planning. This paper synthesizes insights related to technological and market-related uncertainties, including natural gas prices, energy efficiency costs, variable renewable energy costs, and early nuclear power plant retirements. A common feature across models and scenarios is that the coal generation and capacity shares decline over time, though the rate of decline depends on natural gas prices and electricity demand. The paper also discusses trends in renewable capacity additions over time, natural gas capacity factor changes, and CO2 emissions trajectories.
Link to Journal Publication: Energy Economics