EPRI has embarked on this study to develop a resource that can serve as a techno-economic reference for informed decision-making on company generation planning and project management of new power generation projects.
A review of industry/professional (grey) and academic (white) literature was carried out to establish a fundamental understanding of the existence, drivers, and implications of craft labor shortages for new power generation projects. Building off insights from the literature, three related estimations were carried out to develop a comprehensive profile of craft labor availability and costs for power generation projects of different fuel types across 15 U.S. regions through the year 2028. The findings around craft labor availability and costs were then used to carry out a fourth estimation seeking to quantify potential capital cost impacts of craft labor shortages on representative power generation projects across the same 15 regions through the year 2028.
Key findings from the study identify there is no singular craft labor shortage, but rather regional and time-variant craft labor shortages. Further, these craft labor shortages are not found to exert significant upward pressure on overall craft labor costs (bare wages plus per diems) in real, inflation-adjusted terms. Similarly, while craft labor costs are expected to increase in each of the 15 regions, these escalating craft labor costs are not expected to be large enough in magnitude to 1) drastically increase the capital costs of an NGCC plant, and 2) render this NGCC technology costlier than the onshore and solar PV generating technologies studied. Future capital cost estimations could incorporate costs associated with productivity changes and impacts to project scheduling and safety from craft and common labor availability, as well as project financing costs.