This paper estimates the potential impact of changes in air temperature on electricity demand for cooling in New York State. We use a structural approach based on the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) US-REGEN end-use demand module, which projects hourly electricity demand from the bottom-up for several key end-use sectors. Electricity demand for cooling is calculated here using observed hourly air temperature in a building energy model simulation that explicitly tracks floorspace and cooling technology stocks with exogenous projections about technological change and socioeconomic growth. We begin by describing the reference case for cooling demand in 2050 under the assumption of no warming. Next, we repeat the process for a range of potential temperature scenarios with warming of up to five degrees Fahrenheit in order to assess the impacts on electricity demand for cooling. Specifically, we develop temperature-adjusted load duration curves that reflect cooling demand in 2050 under warmer conditions. This work contributes to the climate impacts literature, as the majority of impact studies have relied on empirical models that estimate the statistical relationship between weather and electricity use: our results from a structural basis offer a point of comparison to previous estimates. Furthermore, this analysis will deliver an intermediate product in the form of temperature-adjusted load shape inputs that can be utilized by the broader community of energy-economy models to better assess the electric system’s vulnerability to and plan for different climate conditions.