Load forecasting is the foundational first step to distribution system planning. Prior load forecasting approaches have served the industry reasonably well in the past. However, changing system loading characteristics – associated with distributed energy resources (DER), end-use technologies efficiencies, changing customer behaviors, and other factors – are raising concerns about the ability of current forecasting methods and approaches to effectively account for these changes.
To better understand the nature of current and future load forecasting needs, this report provides information on common load forecasting approaches applicable to distribution planning. It presents results from a survey intended to map out the landscape of current load forecasting approaches, and identifies associated challenges facing distribution planners. Based on the survey findings and discussions with distribution planners, this report also addresses first order gaps in load forecasting needs to direct future research, development, and demonstration activities which seek to improve the effectiveness of load forecasting and distribution planning practices.