Regional Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential in the United States to 2030

While carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere, a number of other gases contribute notably to climate change, including methane and nitrous oxide. These non-CO2 GHGs represent opportunities for mitigating future climate change, providing policy-makers and compliance entities with other potential strategies for managing GHGs. Having additional strategies implies greater flexibility for managing compliance costs and uncertainty. Non-CO2 GHG emissions sources and abatement opportunities vary by location due to regional differences in the composition of emissions, applicability of abatement measures, and market conditions. However, abatement measure analyses to date have not considered sub-national heterogeneity, which is relevant to regional decision-making and the distribution of potential GHG abatement compliance costs and revenues. This study was undertaken to estimate U.S. sub-national regional abatement costs and the potential for key non-CO2 GHG sources. Specifically, we estimate GHG abatement supply to 2030 for states and fifteen U.S. regions and four major non-CO2 Kyoto GHG emitting sources—coal mining, natural gas and oil production and distribution, municipal solid waste landfills, and nitric and adipic acid production. We find significant geographic heterogeneity in future non-CO2 GHG abatement potential within the U.S., with the largest potential in Texas, Southwest Central, Mid Atlantic and Southeast Central states, and the smallest potential in New England and Pacific states. We also find that the level of regional heterogeneity varies by emissions source.

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