This technical update report highlights analysis conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) for our 2016 annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project. This project analyzed how U.S. electric power generation may evolve between 2015 and 2050 under different future economic, regulatory and market scenarios.
In 2016, EPRI analyzed 13 different scenarios to explore the potential impacts to the electric sector of several key uncertainties that may impact the electric power sector, including: (i) future natural gas prices; (ii) future electric loads; (iii) the cost to develop new utility-scale solar power resources; (iv) the cost to refurbish coal and natural gas-fired power plants to extend their normal operating lifetimes; (v) potential electric sector approaches that may be adopted to comply with the federal Clean Power Plan (CPP) and possible future regulation of GHG emissions; and, (vi) approaches to reduce electric sector GHG emissions by -80 percent by 2050 as compared to 2005 baseline emissions.
Background
The annual EPRI REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project and this technical update report were developed and produced by EPRI’s research program on “Market Analysis and Integrated Portfolio Planning” (Project Set 178B). Key aspects of this EPRI research program include conducting research and development associated with the evolution of the existing electric power generating fleet in the United States, and developing tools, analyses, and studies to assist EPRI member electric companies and the public to conduct advanced electric power generation planning analyses.
In recent years, the members of PS-178b have requested EPRI to develop different scenarios of potential future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the coming decades, and to analyze how the electric sector might evolve in these scenarios. In response, PS-178b developed the annual “REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project” that began in 2013, and has conducted scenario analysis and published results annually since then.
The term “REGEN” refers to EPRI’s proprietary United States Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas and Energy Model (US-REGEN). This computer simulation model can be used to explore how the U.S. electric generation may evolve under different future economic, regulatory and market scenarios.
This is the fourth year PS-178b has undertaken the annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project. In 2013, EPRI analyzed 10 different future scenarios to explore key uncertainties, such as future natural gas prices, different levels of renewable resource development, transmission system expansion, future load growth, and different greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies. In 2014, EPRI developed 12 new analysis scenarios, and provided EPRI members with the key results from that analysis. For 2015, EPRI developed a set of 14 different scenarios that spanned a range of technology and GHG mitigation policy uncertainties and analyzed how the U.S. electric power generation fleet might evolve in the future in each scenario.
Objectives
One goal of this EPRI project is to create a set of analytic scenarios and quantitative results that can be used by PS-178b members to provide the basis for the development of electric company generation planning studies. Another goal of this project is to continue to exercise EPRI’s US-REGEN model to better understand its capabilities and limitations, and to identify potential future improvements that may be made to the model.
Approach
We used a collaborative research approach to develop analysis scenarios that would be of interest to EPRI member companies and would significantly exercise the US-REGEN model. EPRI formed a working group composed of staff from PS-178b member companies and key EPRI staff. This group met three times via webcast and twice in person in 2016 to discuss this project.
Results
This year, EPRI once again has developed three deliverable products for this project that are available to PS-178b members: (i) an Excel® spreadsheet workbook containing final quantitative results from our analysis on a national and 15-region basis, (ii) a PowerPoint® presentation summarizing the analysis and results of this project, and (iii) this technical update report.
This year EPRI has packaged all three of these deliverables into once “assembled package” so EPRI members can obtain all three of these products at one time. This EPRI report highlights U.S. national results from the analysis of the 13 scenarios explored in 2016. Additional regional results, based on the 15 regions included in the US-REGEN model are available on the Excel® spreadsheet workbook associated with this report.
Applications, Value, and Use
Currently, staff of U.S. electric companies charged with conducting long-term electric generation planning analyses typically rely on the EIA’s AEO report for relevant data and analyses related to future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the future. EPRI’s REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project is designed to complement the analysis provided in the AEO, and extend the analysis to potential scenarios that are not analyzed or explored in the AEO. For example, the EIA is constrained when developing the AEO to limit its analysis to scenarios that are based on current existing laws and regulations. EPRI does not face this constraint and so is free to analyze the wider range of potential scenarios that are included in our annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project.