In recent years, the members of EPRI Project Set 178b have requested EPRI to develop different scenarios of potential future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the coming decades and to analyze how the electric sector might evolve in the future under these scenarios. This EPRI report highlights results from an analysis of how U.S. electric power generation may evolve under 14 different future scenarios analyzed this year.
EPRI’s research Program 178 is focused on “Technology Assessment, Market Analysis and Generation Planning.” One key aspect of this research program is conducting research and development associated with the evolution of the existing electric power generating fleet in the United States and developing tools, analyses, and relevant studies to assist EPRI member electric companies and the public to conduct advanced electric power generation planning analyses.
In response, PS-178b developed an annual research project referred to as the “REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project.” The term “REGEN” refers to EPRI’s proprietary United States Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas and Energy Model (US-REGEN). This is the computer simulation model used to explore how the U.S. electric generation may evolve under different future economic, regulatory and market scenarios.
Background
This is the third year in a row that EPRI has undertaken the annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project in PS-178b. In 2013, EPRI conducted the first REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project. For that effort, EPRI developed 10 different analysis scenarios to explore key uncertainties, such as future natural gas prices, different levels of renewable resource development, transmission system expansion, future load growth, and different greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies. The project team used EPRI’s proprietary US-REGEN model to analyze these 10 different scenarios that incorporated these key uncertainties. In 2014, EPRI developed an additional 12 analysis scenarios and provided EPRI members with the key results from that analysis.
For 2015, EPRI developed a new set of 14 different scenarios that span a range of technology and GHG mitigation policy uncertainties and analyzed how the U.S. electric power generation fleet might evolve in the future in each scenario.
Objectives
One goal of this EPRI project is to create a set of analytic scenarios and quantitative results that can be used by members of research Program 178 and Project Set 178b to provide the basis for the development of electric company generation planning studies. EPRI’s REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project complements analysis provided in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) published by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) and extends the analysis to potential scenarios that are not analyzed or explored in the AEO. Another goal of this project is to continue to exercise EPRI’s US-REGEN model to better understand its capabilities and limitations and to identify potential future improvements that may be made to the model.
Approach
This project used a collaborative research approach to develop analysis scenarios that would be of interest to EPRI member companies and would significantly exercise the US-REGEN model. To do this, EPRI formed a working group composed of staff from companies who are members of Project Set 178b and key EPRI staff in the EPRI Energy and Environmental Analysis Program. This working group met four times via webcast over the course of 2015 and met in person to discuss this project at two in-person meetings held in the spring and fall of 2015.
Results
For 2015, EPRI analyzed 14 different scenarios to explore the potential impacts to the electric sector of several key uncertainties, including: (i) uncertain future natural gas price pathways; (ii) uncertain future electricity load; (iii) uncertainty with regards to regulatory subsidies designed to increase deployment of renewable resources; and (iv) potential electric sector responses to different approaches that may be adopted to reduce GHG emissions and mitigate climate change, including scenarios that evaluate compliance with the final federal Clean Power Plan (CPP) recently promulgated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) pursuant to §111(d) of the Clean Air Act.
This year, EPRI is once again providing members of Program 178 and Project Set 178b with three deliverable products related to this project: (i) an Excel® spreadsheet workbook containing the final analysis quantitative results on a national and 15-region basis, (ii) a final PowerPoint® presentation summarizing the key analysis and results of this project, and (iii) this final report. This EPRI report highlights U.S. national results from the analysis of the 14 scenarios explored in 2015. Additional regional results, based on the 15 regions included in the US-REGEN model are available on the Excel® spreadsheet workbook that is associated with this report.
Applications, Value, and Use
Currently, staffs of U.S. electric companies charged with conducting long-term generation planning analyses typically rely on the EIA’s AEO report for relevant data and analyses related to future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the future. EPRI’s REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project is designed to complement the analysis provided in the AEO and extend the analysis to potential scenarios that are not analyzed or explored in the AEO. For example, the EIA is constrained when developing the AEO to limit its analysis to scenarios that are based on current existing laws and regulations. EPRI does not face this constraint and so is free to analyze the wider range of potential scenarios that are included in our annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project.