EPRI’s research program 178 is focused on “Technology Assessment, Market Analysis and Generation Planning.” One key aspect of this research program is conducting research and development associated with the evolution of the existing electric power generating fleet in the United States and developing tools, analyses, and relevant studies that can assist EPRI member electric companies to conduct advanced electric power generation planning analyses.
In 2013 and again in 2014, the members of Program 178 and Project Set 178b requested EPRI to develop different scenarios of potential future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the coming decades and to analyze how the electric sector might evolve in the future under these scenarios. In response, EPRI developed an annual research project referred to here as the “REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project.” The term “REGEN” refers to EPRI’s proprietary United States Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas and Energy Model (US-REGEN). This is the computer simulation model used to analyze how these different scenarios might impact the future evolution of U.S. electric generation.
This report highlights results from analysis of 12 different scenarios of potential future technology, regulatory, and market conditions that may exist in the United States in the coming decades. It summarizes an analysis of how the electric sector might evolve in the future under these scenarios.
Background
In 2013, EPRI conducted the first annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project. For that effort, EPRI developed 10 different analysis scenarios to explore the following uncertainties: (i) future natural gas prices, (ii) different levels of renewable resource development, (iii) transmission system expansion, (iv) future load growth, and (v) different greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies. The project team used EPRI’s proprietary US-REGEN model to analyze these 10 different scenarios that incorporated these key uncertainties. In 2013, EPRI provided members of Program 178 and Project Set 178b with final results of the analysis in the form of a final PowerPoint® presentation accompanied by an Excel® spreadsheet workbook that contained the final analysis results. In 2014, EPRI developed an additional 12 analysis scenarios. This report is one of the deliverables of this effort.
Objectives
One goal of this EPRI project is to create a set of analytic scenarios and quantitative results that can be used by members of research Program 178 and Project Set 178b to provide the basis for the development of electric company generation planning studies. EPRI’s REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project is designed to complement the analysis provided in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) published by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) and extend the analysis to potential scenarios that are not analyzed or explored in the AEO. Another goal of this project is to continue to exercise EPRI’s US-REGEN model to better understand its capabilities and limitations and to identify potential future improvements to the model.
Approach
This project used a collaborative research approach to develop analysis scenarios that would be of interest to EPRI member companies and would significantly exercise the US-REGEN model. To do this, EPRI formed a working group composed of staff from companies who are members of Project Set 178b and key EPRI staff in the EPRI Energy and Environmental Analysis Program.
Results
For 2014, EPRI analyzed 12 different scenarios to explore the potential impacts to the electric sector of four key uncertainties: (i) uncertain future natural gas price pathways, (ii) uncertain future electricity load pathways, (iii) uncertainty in the future cost and deployment of wind and solar renewable energy resources, and (iv) potential electric sector responses to the Clean Power Plan proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) pursuant to section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act (CAA)—see 79 Federal Register 34830 (June 18, 2014).
The project deliverables for 2014 include (i) a final PowerPoint® presentation; (ii) an Excel® spreadsheet workbook that contains the final analysis results; and (iii) this EPRI Technical Update report. This report is an additional deliverable for 2014 and is designed to improve member understanding of EPRI’s U.S. REGEN Model, the 13 REGEN analysis scenarios developed in 2014, the key data and assumptions used in EPRI’s modeling, and the final results.
Applications, Value, and Use
Currently, staffs of U.S. electric companies charged with conducting long-term generation planning analyses typically rely on the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) report produced by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA). EPRI’s REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project is designed to complement the analysis provided in the AEO and extend the analysis to potential scenarios that are not analyzed or explored in the AEO. For example, the EIA is constrained when developing the AEO to limit its analysis to scenarios that are based on current existing laws and regulations. EPRI does not face this constraint and so is free to analyze a wider range of potential scenarios that are included in our annual REGEN Scenarios Analysis Project.