The EPRI Technical Assessment Guide™ (TAG®)—Power Generation and Storage Technology Options report provides cost and performance data and analysis for energy company decision makers to optimize capital investments in the power generation and energy storage infrastructure. The topics chosen by the TAG® members in 2013 reflect the transition of the industry in the last few years from a heavily coal and nuclear technologies-based generation to natural gas-based combustion turbine/combined cycle and to non-dispatchable renewable-based generation. There is ongoing debate whether the transition is short term or may change the structure of the industry in the long term. The content of 2013 TAG has been modified to reflect current topics of interest to members which includes, in addition to cost and performance data for combustion turbines, an overview of the trends of coal-based technologies, issues involving renewable technologies in the system, an update on environmental emissions and control technologies, and comparison of water usage by various technologies from a planning perspective. A related report, Technical Assessment Guide (TAG) – Generation Capacity Addition Topics (3002001435), addresses additional topics, including an analysis of cost escalation impacts on future power plants, material and labor productivity, and an update of switchyard costs. In general, the membership interest has been focused on analysis rather than on technologies cost and performance data.
Results and Findings
Results of the 2013 TAG studies indicate that the addition of renewable technologies is accelerating even though there are lingering questions on the true cost of new capacity additions in the electric power industry in the U.S. As in 2012 and years before, there was very limited activity in planning for new coal and nuclear units and due to projected low cost and availability of natural gas there was some planning activity in combustion turbine simple cycle and combined cycle plants. In 2013, as in 2012, the existing coal-based power generation capacity has been the focus of evaluation for retirements and options for environmental emission controls due to announced EPA rule enforcement on SO2, NOX, Hg and particulate emissions and cooling mechanisms. In addition, uncertainty in technical and economic feasibility of CO2 emissions capture and sequestration remains. New capacity additions in the renewable sector—a major beneficiary of regulatory requirements and falling prices — advanced to certain degree. Although renewable technologies are beginning to emerge in the technology mix with government incentives and regulatory requirements, the issue of their integration and questions on the true cost of implementation on a much larger scale in the utility system is only beginning to be addressed. An overview of a hypothetical Wind Farm’s variability in power production and the overall cost was presented in the 2012 report. In this 2013 report, this activity has been extended to include O&M costs and a literature survey of work done outside EPRI. In 2013, planning for new power generation technologies continues to be in a state of flux because of 1) the emissions and cost uncertainties surrounding the various technologies, 2) increased focus on energy efficiency, and 3) the challenge of forecasting power demand. This report provides an overview of basic engineering economic methods to compare technology costs on a consistent basis during uncertain economic times. The projected costs in this report reflect conditions at the end of third quarter 2013 and the costs projected in this report would be valid for planning purposes in the 2014 and beyond time frame.
Challenges and Objectives
The primary goal of this TAG volume is to provide cost and performance data and analysis to meet the needs of technology and business planners, engineers, managers, and financial and legal professionals. The guide offers an objective, up-to-date overview of the technical status, performance, costs, and markets for electricity supply technologies as well as data and a method for performing preliminary technical and economic evaluations of the various technologies.
Applications, Values, and Use
For power producers, TAG offers independent technical and cost information explicitly identifying contingency and relative risks that firms considering multiple sites, technologies, and time scales must evaluate. The report serves as a planning document rather than a design tool. TAG can be used to address uncertainties with respect to the market price for electricity and how it affects return on investment, environmental restrictions impacting existing assets, technology obsolescence and risk, and performance characteristics impacting market position.
EPRI Perspective
TAG is widely considered the industry standard and has been an authoritative source of cost and performance information on electricity generation technologies. EPRI’s data screening, sifting, and evaluation process ensures quality, credible information for customization in one package for capital investment planning in the energy industry.
EPRI Perspective
The goal of TAG researchers is to help energy companies make technology-related investment decisions that are consistent with their long-term business goals. The annual TAG update reflects current market trends for various technologies and interests of TAG program advisors. Due to budget constraints and based on the interests of program advisors, only selected technologies are updated each year.